Rates Have Already Moved — And Oil Is a Big Reason Why

Latest News Lora Fenn 27 Mar

Mortgage Rates Have Already Moved — And Oil Is a Big Reason Why
Oil has now pushed above $100 per barrel — and once it holds above the $95 range, it starts to create real inflation pressure across the economy.
This matters more than most people realize.
Because what’s happening with oil right now is one of the key reasons mortgage rates have already started to move — even if the headlines haven’t caught up yet.
Why Oil Matters So Much
Oil touches almost everything in the economy.
When oil prices rise, it increases the cost of:
Transportation
Goods and materials
Food production
Everyday living
That creates broad, persistent inflation pressure.
And inflation is exactly what the Bank of Canada is trying to control.
But Mortgage Rates Don’t Wait
Here’s where most people get this wrong.
Even if the Bank of Canada pauses…
👉 Mortgage rates can still rise
That’s because fixed mortgage rates are driven by the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield — not just central bank decisions.
And bond markets move fast.
When oil stays high:
Inflation expectations increase
Investors demand higher yields
Mortgage rates move — often before the news reflects it
Why This Is Happening Right Now
We’re in a moment where the surface story doesn’t match what’s actually happening underneath.
You’ll hear:
“Rates are stable”
“The Bank of Canada is holding”
But behind the scenes:
Oil is over $100
Inflation risks are building
Bond markets are adjusting
👉 And as a result, rates have already started to move
The Bigger Risk No One Is Talking About
A significant portion of the world’s oil supply is tied to regions where access can be disrupted or controlled.
Even the risk of supply tightening — not just actual shortages — is enough to keep oil elevated.
That means this isn’t just a short-term spike.
👉 There’s a real possibility oil stays high longer than expected
👉 Which keeps inflation “sticky”
👉 Which delays meaningful rate relief
What This Means for You
If you’re:
Buying this year
Renewing in the next 6–12 months
Or planning ahead
This is not a “wait and see” market.
This is a positioning market.
Because by the time headlines clearly say “rates are rising again”…
👉 they’ve already moved.
What Smart Borrowers Are Doing
Right now, the most strategic move isn’t guessing — it’s preparing.
Smart borrowers are:
Locking in rates early (up to 120–130 days)
Creating flexibility while watching the market
Making decisions based on direction, not headlines
The Bottom Line
Oil above $100 isn’t just an energy story.
It’s an inflation signal.
And inflation is what drives mortgage rates.
So while things may look stable on the surface…
👉 There is already upward pressure building
👉 And rates have already begun to respond
Let’s Build a Strategy
If you want to get ahead of this — instead of reacting to it later:
📩 Reach out anytime. I’ll walk you through your options and help you build a mortgage strategy that actually fits where the market is going.

Why the HST Cut on New Builds Isn’t the Full Story

Mortgage Strategy Lora Fenn 27 Mar

There’s been a quiet but important shift in Ontario’s housing market.

The provincial government, led by Doug Ford, recently announced a temporary HST cut on new builds, set to last up to one year. At first glance, it sounds like a move designed to help first-time homebuyers.

But the reality is a bit more layered.

🧾 Why the HST Cut Was Introduced

Originally, reducing or rebating HST on new construction was meant to make housing more affordable — especially for first-time buyers entering the market.

The challenge is that, in today’s environment, first-time buyers are not the primary drivers of new construction demand.

Higher interest rates, affordability constraints, and general uncertainty have made it difficult for many buyers to commit to pre-construction properties.

🏗️ What’s Really Happening Behind the Scenes

Over the past several years, a significant portion of new condo developments were supported by investors rather than end users.

Now, that dynamic has shifted.

We’re seeing:

Slower pre-construction sales
Projects struggling to reach completion thresholds
Increased financial pressure on developers

In response, the government has not only introduced the HST cut, but has also stepped in with financing support — offering loans to developers to help complete existing projects.

This signals something important:

👉 The goal is not just to stimulate buying
👉 It’s to stabilize the housing supply pipeline

📉 The Role of Slowing Growth

At the same time, Canada’s population growth has moderated, particularly with recent changes to international student intake.

International students have historically contributed to:

Rental demand
Local economic activity
Broader housing market pressure

With fewer students entering the country, demand has softened — especially in urban rental markets — which indirectly affects new build absorption.

🧠 What This Means for the Market

Taken together, these changes point to a broader shift:

Demand is becoming more selective
Supply is under pressure to complete, not just launch
Government policy is focused on maintaining stability, not just affordability

This is why headlines alone don’t always tell the full story.

Even when rates appear stable, there are multiple underlying forces shaping the direction of the market.

🌿 A More Strategic Approach

In times like this, timing and structure matter more than ever.

Whether you’re considering:

Buying
Renewing
Refinancing
Or simply trying to understand your options

It’s worth looking at your situation early — before decisions become urgent.

If you ever want to talk through what this means for you, I’m always happy to help.